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Valuations

Sky (SKY): the cheap blue-chip with a throttled buyback

The protocol formerly known as MakerDAO is growing revenue fast and trades cheaply, around 6x surplus. The catch is a buyback deliberately cut to 7.5% while it rebuilds a solvency reserve, a dated catalyst that flips back on once the reserve fills. Grade BBB.

BBB
Composite

Cheap and growing, with the buyback deliberately turned down.

Sky, formerly MakerDAO, is a rare DeFi blue-chip that is both growing fast and cheap. Revenue jumped 29% year over year and it trades around 6 times surplus. The reason it is cheap is a choice: the buyback was throttled to build a solvency reserve, and it restores toward normal once that reserve fills.

Q1 REVENUE+28.9% YoY
$123.8M
~$435M annualized
P / SURPLUScheap
~6.2x
~2.4x gross revenue
USDS SUPPLY+67.9% YoY
$11.7B
stablecoin in issue
BUYBACKthrottled
7.5%
cut from 75% to build reserve

What it is

Sky is the protocol formerly known as MakerDAO and the issuer of the USDS stablecoin, now at $11.7B and growing 68% year over year. It earns by lending against collateral and holding real-world assets, and it is one of the oldest and most battle-tested businesses in DeFi.

The money

First-quarter gross revenue was $123.8M, up 29% year over year and 57% quarter over quarter, annualizing to roughly $435M with 2026 projected near $611M. Protocol surplus was $46M in the quarter, about $184M annualized. That puts it around 6 times surplus and 2.4 times gross revenue, cheap for a franchise still growing this fast.

The throttled catalyst

The Smart Burn Engine, Sky's buyback, was cut from 75% of surplus to 7.5% in March 2026 to build a $150M solvency reserve. The reserve was about $51M and on track for roughly $75M by mid-year. Once it reaches $125M, the buyback restores toward 25% and above. That restoration is the dated catalyst: the cash is being earned now, it is just being retained for a while.

MetricValueNote
Q1 gross revenue$123.8M+28.9% YoY
Annualized~$435M2026 projected ~$611M
Q1 surplus$46M~$184M annualized
P / surplus~6.2xcheap and growing

Fig 1 · Growing fast, priced cheap.

Probability-weighted paths
Bull: stablecoin bull, full buyback restored, USDS $20B+ ($0.13-0.17)25%
Base: USDS grows, reserve fills ~2027, buyback restores, modest re-rate ($0.078-0.096)45%
Bear: USDS stalls, RWA credit scare, buyback stays throttled ($0.031-0.035)30%

EXPECTED VALUE ~= 1.73x, THE RE-RATE IS THE BUYBACK COMING BACK

CONFIRMED

Revenue is real and growing: Q1 gross revenue $123.8M, up 29% year over year, with USDS supply up 68% year over year.

THE THROTTLE

The buyback is intentionally cut to 7.5% of surplus while the reserve fills. It restores toward 25% or more once the reserve hits $125M, expected around 2027.

THE RISK

Two top holders control about 41% and 29%, though these read as protocol and treasury contracts. Stablecoin competition and any real-world-asset credit scare are the real bear.

The call

Grade BBB, an investment-grade blue-chip. Cheap on a growing surplus, with a clean, dated catalyst: the buyback restoring once the solvency reserve fills. The risk is that the reserve build drags, USDS growth stalls, or a real-world-asset credit issue hits the balance sheet. Watch USDS supply and the reserve balance approaching $125M.

Confidence and what we could not verify

Moderate to high. Revenue, surplus and supply figures are foundation-reported and consistent. The main judgment is the timing of the reserve build and the durability of USDS growth.

FILED UNDER — Valuations · Economics · Stablecoins · SKY
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