Elite execution, priced for the optionality to work.
Robinhood has gone from a $6 post-IPO wreck to a $98B franchise, shipping across crypto, prediction markets, tokenized stocks, and banking. The execution is real. The catch is the price: about 51 times earnings, with no margin of safety, for a business whose growth just halved on a cyclical crypto air-pocket.
What it is
Robinhood is a retail brokerage that has aggressively expanded into crypto, options, prediction markets (event contracts), tokenized stocks, banking, and its own L2. FY2025 revenue was $4.47B, up 52%, with net income of $1.88B and a 42% net margin. Vlad Tenev has taken it from post-IPO wreckage to a $98B company on relentless product velocity.
The deceleration
The first-quarter 2026 print is the tension. Revenue grew 15%, down from north of 50%, because crypto revenue fell 47% year over year. The offset is prediction markets, where event contracts jumped 320% to $147M, plus steady options and net interest income. The bet is that the new engines outrun the crypto air-pocket.
The price
It trades around 51 times trailing earnings, 21 times sales, 48 times EV/EBITDA, with a 2.35 beta. Analyst consensus is a Buy with a $110.67 target, essentially spot. There is no margin of safety here. You are paying a growth multiple for a business whose growth just halved on a cyclical factor.
Fig 1 · EV midpoint ~$115-120, a wide, crypto-dependent distribution.
FY25 revenue $4.47B, up 52%, net income $1.88B at a 42% margin. The franchise turnaround is real.
Q1'26 growth decelerated to 15% as crypto revenue fell 47% year over year. Event contracts, up 320%, are the offset.
About 51 times earnings, 2.35 beta, consensus target near spot. No margin of safety. The entry is a bet the new engines outrun the crypto air-pocket.
The call
Grade BB, borderline BBB. Elite execution at a full price. The distribution of outcomes is wide and skewed to whatever crypto does next, and at an all-time-high-adjacent multiple there is no cushion if the new engines stall. Watch prediction-market revenue scaling and whether crypto revenue stabilizes.
Confidence and what we could not verify
Moderate to high. The financials are audited and clean. The judgment is entirely about the multiple and the durability of the new revenue engines, not the reported numbers.